The Conversation Everywhere
Everyone is talking about this deal.
Analysis is flying everywhere.
Some are solid. Others… not so much.
So the big question remains:
Was this a smart move or a swindle?
The Intention Behind the Deal
The intention is to channel the money into a new National Infrastructure Fund currently being set up.
Safaricom Shareholding Before the Sale
Government: 35%
Vodacom Group: 35%
Public & Institutional Investors: 25%
Vodafone Kenya Ltd: 5% (set to be bought by Vodacom)
After the Government Sold 15%
Government: 20%
Vodacom Group: 55%
Public & Institutional Investors: 25%
The Deal Structure
Market Value: Ksh 28
Negotiated Sale Price: Ksh 34
Ordinary Shares Sold (15%): 6B shares
Amount to Be Received: Ksh 204.3B
Future Dividends Surrendered (worth Ksh 15.5B now): Ksh 40.2B
Total Expected Receipts: Ksh 244.5B
Note: Government accepts Ksh 40.2B now instead of Ksh 55B worth of future dividends.
So What’s the Contention?
Many believe the government accepted a raw deal based on Safaricom’s true long-term value.
But let’s reason it out clearly.
The government, like any investor reducing exposure, would normally sell at the market price (Ksh 28 at the time).
They negotiated Ksh 34, which is Ksh 6 above market value.
On paper — that’s a win.
Why Do People Still Feel Shortchanged?
Because Safaricom’s future outlook is strong.
MPESA could eventually stand alone as a separate company.
The telco and data arm could operate independently.
Ethiopia expansion could unlock massive value.
Meaning: Anyone who holds their shares long-term is likely to gain.
But the government chose liquidity now over future upside.
The Bigger Issue: Control
This is where emotions rise.
By dropping to 20%, Kenya loses significant influence over Kenya’s most profitable company — and its largest monetary ecosystem, MPESA.
Vodacom now controls 55%, meaning it could:
Influence strategic direction
Rebrand
Even move certain operations or HQ outside Kenya
Government’s Remaining Power
Regulation and a 20% voting rights.
This is why many Kenyans feel public participation was necessary.
So… Was the Sale Worth It?
Maybe.
Maybe not.
The true value depends on whether the Ksh 244.5B will genuinely build national infrastructure — or disappear into waste and corruption.
History, of course, makes us cautious.
We can only hope this money does not end up enriching a few while the country stays stuck.
Your Turn
What’s your honest take on this Safaricom deal?
